Volume 14 | Issue 2 | Article 5

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Regulatory Change, Structural Breaks, and Transmission Effects in HSIF and HSI Volatility
Siu Pang Au-Yeung and Gerard Gannon (G14)

A systematic BEKK-GARCH model with multiple switch points in the variance equations captures the structural changes that have taken place in the Hong Kong markets. Abolishment of the uptick rule in the Hong Kong stock market, increase of initial margins, and electronic trading of Hang Seng Index Futures are found to have significant impacts. These changes affect the volatility structure of the HSI and HSIF and hence their lead-lag relationship. The multivariate GARCH model with three specific switching points is found to be superior to any other combination of up to six separate switch points.